clemency marshall

Useful and very accessible paper summarising key findings of the latest climate science, the implications for society, and how we can respond. This review is for the 2020 version, not the original 2018 paper where Mr Bendell was a little too pessimistic about the inevitability of societal collapse. Bendells central argument is that global warming has entered the “runaway” phase – i.e. even if civilisation could somehow immediately achieve net zero emissions, we are still going to see average temperature rises of probably at least 3° - 6°C, due to positive feedback loops. For example, melting polar ice, which exposes more land or ocean that absorbs heat rather than reflect sunlight back to space, hence resulting in more warming, more ice melt, even more warming, etc. I’ve over simplified a bit there, but something like that ice melt effect is undeniably happening. Even more concerning is the possible feedback loop for methane release, though as Bendell admits, the science there is less clear, and the reality may not be as bad as he fears. Bendell also concedes there are also negative feedback loops in operation, which are helping to slow global warming. Such as the greening effect where increased levels of CO₂ result in more plant growth and hence more carbon sequestering. So the paper allows a grain of hope for thinking that catastrophic levels of global warming may still be averted with sufficient action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Still, the thrust of the paper is that this is unlikely, it suggests societal collapse could well occur before 2030, or if not is very likely to happen in the next few decades. Compared to the detail on why runaway global warming is likely not unstoppable, there’s little discussion of why said temperature rises are going to cause societal collapse. Granted, without currently inconceivable technological and social change, and with current restrictions against migration, a 5°C average temperature rise would make large parts of the global south uninhabitable, dooming over a billion to die from a mix of mostly starvation and conflict. Even over the past few years, theres already been an increase in the numbers dying directly from heat. But global warming is not going to be a negative in all parts of the world. It should massively increase the fertility of huge tracts of currently mostly uninhabited land, mostly in Canada and Russia. Providing humanity can adapt swiftly enough, and becomes more accepting of migration, societal collapse can be averted. The rapid increase in the power of AI is another cause of hope. Admittedly the last paragraph above might be seen as clutching at straws. The responses advised in the paper – looking at ways to improve our capabilities for acceptance, resilience, relinquishment and restoration do seem rather wise.