One contention in this book is that in the west at present, we have a glut of university humanities and social science graduates who form elites of varying useless sorts. Yes. This book stems from precisely this excess.
In the introduction we're told that America was great under the New Deal, because it was an attempt to transform American society along "Nordic" lines. Now, not enough information is given, in fact none is offered in the introduction, as to what this means exactly, at least according to Turchin. But I think we can guess : Big government ; big tax take ; big public sector. This works just swell for Norway, sure. Norway gets a gazillion dollars ( US that is of course ) each year from North sea oil and gas reserves. Norway has in turn a small population. Norway would need to be really really bad at running itself, either as a socialist utopia, or as any other kind of tin pot joint not to be doing an awful lot accidentally right courtesy of all that fossil fuel lucre. And it's fairly likely that much of Norway's oil and gas revenue spills over its borders into Sweden. To think it doesn't is like suggesting that in the Australian federation, the state of Victoria could remain prosperous without the mining revenues other states in the federation generate and of which benefits are generally shared. ( Victoria most definitely couldn't ; and incidentally won't in spite of such future benefit. ) Sweden luckily also has its own economic base industries. No one could deny, or would bother to, that Nordic countries have something to recommend them, however boring they may be otherwise. But fancy taking as a prospective model for a polity of 340 million people, a more homogeneous, if formally separated, tiny polity of only about 25 million -- ridiculous.
And then there's the economic data. New Deal policies entrenched the depression in the United States throughout the 1930s. In Australia, which did not, under the federal Lyons Government, go in for massive social and infrastructure spending programs as in America, the recovery occurred much earlier.
Turchin also says in the introduction, that in essence everything in America went to pot in 1980, the year Reagan was elected. It's funny that, to Turchin, the years 1976-1980, the Carter years, and the preceding Ford ones which were worse, don't seem to have been noteworthily bad at all. Perhaps he can't remember what sort of place New York City was in those years. ( Much less pleasant than was made out in many a Woody Allen movie, mate ).
All of this matters because what Turchin and other lefties like him prescribe, has already been tried throughout the west and failed by about the time he nominates, 1980. By then the welfare state had chugged along for forty years and had produced decay and malaise ; other people's money had run out in ways very similar to what Hayek had predicted in the early forties.
Turchin's understanding of the history of wage decline over the last forty years is fictional. He substitutes power relations whenever, which is often, that the going gets tough in trying to avoid the concept altogether of productivity -- and of course the relative and internationally comparative decline of it throughout the period.
Reputable Academies need to steer students firmly away from stuff like this. It simply doesn't stack up ; It's crypto-socialism in which the outlandish claim is made that the scientific basis for the prediction of history has been found. Really.